By Daniel Kurtzer
New York Daily News
•
Apr 20, 2023
Israelis and Palestinians are headed for yet another Intifada, or
uprising. This outbreak of serious violence will be different from the
first two uprisings and likely more destructive. Many people — the
majority of whom will be Palestinians — will be killed and injured;
property will be destroyed; and thousands will be dislocated from their
homes.
Preventing this uprising is possible, but will require
determined Israeli and Palestinian leadership, and a strong push from
the United States and the international community. It is not too late to
stop the downward slide toward a third Intifada.
The coming
Intifada will not resemble either of the previous violent uprisings. The
first Intifada erupted in late 1987, and became known as the “Intifada
of the stones.” The violence and counter-violence nevertheless took a
heavy toll — about 2,000 deaths, with the ratio of Palestinian to
Israeli deaths being about 3:1.
In a period of substantial
international and regional upheaval — the first Gulf War, collapse of
the Soviet Union, end of apartheid in South Africa, and reunification of
Germany — this Intifada prompted the United States to lead an effort
that produced the Madrid peace conference in 1991 and subsequent
bilateral and multilateral negotiations.
The second Intifada
erupted in September 2000 in the wake of the failed Camp David summit.
Palestinian violence and Israel’s response turned lethal from the
beginning, and the toll was significantly higher – more than 4,300
casualties, with the same 3:1 ratio between Palestinians and Israelis.
This
Intifada did not lead to a peace breakthrough, but several
consequential actions followed— the Clinton peace “parameters” that
narrowed the negotiating gaps between the parties; President Bush’s
announcement of U.S. support for creation of a Palestinian state; and
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s decision to withdraw all settlements,
settlers and the Israeli army from Gaza.
Palestinian violence and
terrorism and Israeli counter-violence have resulted from two different
sets of circumstances. Palestinian individuals — termed “lone wolves” —
have no attachments to political movements. Several new groups of
militants, mostly in the northern West Bank cities of Jenin and Nablus,
are not affiliated with either the traditional nationalist or Islamic
movements. Increasing anger among Palestinians is being fed by
increasing militancy among Israeli settlers and some within the Israeli
ruling coalition. In particular, strong-arm Israeli police tactics on
the Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif have exacerbated tensions, fed by
increasing Palestinian provocations.
The first requirement to
prevent another Intifada is for Israel and Palestine to stop the slide
toward violence among Palestinian youth and groups and among Israeli
settlers. Both must dial back the mounting tensions in Jerusalem. The
Palestinian security force and the Israeli army must send a message that
violence emanating from either side will not be tolerated. Determined
and creative American leadership left no room for Palestinian, Israeli,
and Arab leaders to say no to peace.
Second, the nascent dialogue
between Israel and Palestine in recent meetings in Aqaba, Jordan, and
Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt, must be continued; and the modest steps they
agreed upon must be implemented. The United States, Egypt, and Jordan —
full participants in those meetings — must monitor implementation of the
commitments undertaken, and hold Israelis and Palestinian accountable
for what they have undertaken to do or to stop doing.
Third,
while neither Palestinians nor Israelis show any inclination to talk
about peace, the United States and the international community can keep
the goal of peace on the table through a positive political vision
statement, endorsed by the UN Security Council. Such statements can help
shake Palestinians and Israelis out of their cynicism and doubt about
the future. For example, the Arab Peace Initiative in 2002 or the
Ayalon-Nusseibeh principles can be used to formulate a new vision of
peace between Israelis and Palestinians.
It is not too late for
more active diplomacy to stop the deterioration on the ground and to
instill even a modicum of hope in relations between Israelis and
Palestinians. Left alone at this point, the parties are heading to a
third Intifada, likely more violent, more damaging, and with
longer-lasting effect than anything seen previously.
The United
States, Egypt, and Jordan — supported by the Abraham Accord countries
and the broader international community — need to insist that the Aqaba
and Sharm commitments be fulfilled and that the dialogue continue and
intensify. The international community can articulate a vision statement
that gives meaning to the effort to de-escalate tensions on the ground.
And Israeli and Palestinian leaders must show the fortitude and
determination to control those in their communities bent on violence.
Preventive actions now are critical.